[Из комментов 20 июля]

Совершенно очевидно, что последний разговор Путина и Трампа был полностью провален Путиным. По какой-то причине Путин расслабился и превратил разговор в публичную комедию. Трамп, безусловно, очень падок на самую грубую лесть, но в данном случае Путин дал слабину и превратил лесть в попытку публично выставить Трампа посмешищем. Это с полной безусловностью видно из реакции Трампа.

Далее, мне так же кажется очевидным, что история с нынешним (подчеркну - нынешним) 50-дневным ультиматумом не могла быть согласована Трампом и Путиным. Теоретически Путин и Трамп вполне могли договориться о каких-то затягивающих сроках, но если бы такая договоренность была, она бы никогда не была обнародована - именно по той причине, что будучи обнародованной, она автоматически ставит Путина в унизительное положение адресата ультиматума.

Как мы видели, все попытки Трампа остановить войну, с самого первого дня его президентства, основывались на идее о том, что самолюбие Путина должно быть пощажено, что ему надо сохранить лицо.

Да, конечно, эта концепция с самого начала была неработоспособной, потому что заключение перемирия по требованию президента США априорно означало бы для Путина потерю лица (в отличие от перемирия по тому формату, который я с осени 2022 года считал и продолжаю считать возможным или даже единственно возможным). Тем не менее, Трамп ей следовал больше пяти месяцев.

Теперь эта концепция отброшена, потому что предъявлен ультиматум, причем это ультиматум с такими небывалыми угрозами, о котором даже помыслить не могли в администрации Байдена, не говоря уже о ЕС.

Собственно говоря, это угроза такой природы, что я очень склонен видеть в ней расчет именно на тот формат перемирия, который, повторю, считал и считаю реалистичным уже два с половиной года.

Формат - тот, о котором я толкую уже третий год.

Я считаю, что после того, как китайцы пересмотрели свое отношение к войне (в сентябре 2022 года) Путин был готов к прекращению огня. Был готов, остается готов и даже стремится к нему. Но только в таком формате, который позволил бы ему изобразить себя победителем. И этот формат существует, я о нем писал еще тогда же (например, здесь - https://bbb.livejournal.com/3874784.html).

Суть формата - в том, что он, так и быть, соглашается прислушаться к подлинно всемирной просьбе всего человечества - а не одного Запада. Мол, если весь мир просит нас остановиться на достигнутом, то как же мы можем отказать?

Более того, я склоняюсь к тому, что идиотские разговоры о ядерном оружии (типа тех, которыми как раз примерно тогда стали пробавляться казенные клоуны вроде Медведева или Караганова) запускались именно с этой целью. То есть что имелось в виду сознательно создать атмосферу глобальной тревоги, которая стала бы формальным поводом для совместного американо-китайского демарша.

Я продолжаю считать, что такой демарш возможен и даже ожидаем, что реакция на него может быть мгновенной. Единственным препятствием остается достижение некоей стратегической договоренности Вашингтона и Пекина. В частности - потому что такой демарш стал бы восприниматься как возвращение биполярности мира.

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Через две недели мы увидели, что ультиматум был реализован только наполовину, в отношении Индии (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/08/addressing-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-the-russian-federation), но не в отношении Китая, то есть идея глобальных вторичных санкций временно снята с обсуждения

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[Из комментов 10 августа - по поводу материала по линку https://unn.ua/en/news/trumps-special-envoy-witkoff-misunderstood-putin-bild]

По линку идет чей-то английский пересказ чьего-то русского пересказа немецкой статьи. Проще смотреть саму статью:

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/friedlicher-rueckzug-hat-trumps-mann-putin-falsch-verstanden-6895de301174f91cb081eb54
https://archive.ph/BGH9w

Из статьи не очень понятно, откуда ее авторы взяли информацию о том, что именно 6 августа предложил Путин (и гипотетически неправильно понял Виткоф). Как мне кажется, Путин об этом публично не рассказал:

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77717
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77728

Ушаков этот вопрос тоже обходит стороной:

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77725
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77745

Судя по всем, Путин рассказал об этом Си Цзиньпину, Моди, Лукашенко и Луле, но они тоже не раскрывают содержание разговоров:

Си Цзиньпин:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77738
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/zyxw/202508/t20250808_11687143.shtml

Лукашенко:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77740
https://president.gov.by/ru/events/interv-u-zurnalu-time

Моди:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77741
https://x.com/narendramodi/status/1953804374158840158

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Позже Путин рассказывал о своей встрече с Виткофом другим собеседникам, причем ни в одном пресс-релизе детали не раскрываются. Выглядит все это, конечно, несколько нелепо, но уж как есть:

9 августа:
- президенту Бразилии Луле - http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77748

10 августа:
- президенту Таджикистана Рахмонову - http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77751
- президенту Киргизии Жапарову - http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77752

11 августа:
- Пашиняну - http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77754

12 августа:
- Ким Чен Ыну - http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77766

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14 августа Путин провел совещание, а Ушаков - бессодержательный брифинг:

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77775
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77774

Самое существенное во всем этом то, что Путин (как минимум, в последние недели) тщательно избегает какой-либо конкретики по поводу своих условий прекращения огня, то есть оставляет себе все возможности для любых уступок.

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Из последних американских заявлений:

August 11, 2025

So you have to understand, this is a war that should have never happened. This is a war that wouldn't have happened if I were president. It would have never happened. It wasn't -- it was the apple of his eye. I got along very well with President Putin. But if you look under President Bush, they took a lot of territory. Under President Obama, they took a lot of territory. Under Biden, they essentially took the whole thing. You know, it's just a question of time. Under Trump, you know what they took, nothing, nothing. I was the one that said, you can't build your pipeline, that was half built. I came in, I stopped the pipeline. It's called Nord Stream 2. Nobody knows that. You know, nobody ever heard of Nord Stream 2. You might have not even heard of it, biggest pipeline in the world. I stopped it. I was not a friend of Russia, but I got along well with Putin. It's always good to get along with other countries, if possible, but that doesn't mean you're -- you roll over like Biden did. Biden came in and he immediately approved the pipeline. I couldn't believe it. Then they say Trump wasn't tough on Russia. I wasn't tough. I was the toughest -- Putin said, if you're not tough, I would hate like hell to see you -- I stopped the biggest economic development job, the biggest job that Russia had ever built, I stopped it. It was dead. And this low IQ president came in and he let them build the pipeline and supply oil and gas all over Europe, you know. So this is really a feel out meeting, a little bit. And President Putin invited me to get involved. He wants to get involved. I think, I believe he wants to get it over with. Now, I've said that a few times and I've been disappointed because I'd have like a great call with him and then missiles would be lobbed into Kyiv or some other place and you'd have 60 people laying on a road dying.
<...>
It's the worst thing that's happened, by far the worst that's happened since World War II. So I'm going in to speak to Vladimir Putin and I'm going to be telling him, you got to end this war, you got to end it. And he wasn't going to mess with me. This war would have never happened. You know, we had a discussion about it one time and we never had that discussion again, would've never happened. And when the election was rigged and then Biden took office, which was -- barely took office. The autopen took office. Bad things started happening, bad things, stupid things were said and it ended up in a war. And you know, the big -- and I don't believe this will happen anymore because I have that pretty well covered. This could end up in a third world war. This could have been a third world war. I don't think that's going to happen now, but I thought it was very respectful that the President of Russia is coming to our country as opposed to us going to his country, or even a third -- third party place. But I think we'll have constructive conversations. Then after that meeting immediately, maybe as I'm flying out, maybe as I'm leaving the room, I'll be calling the European leaders, who I get along with very well. And, you know, I have a great relationship, I think, with all of them. And I get along with Zelenskyy, but, you know, I disagree with what he's done, very, very severely disagree. This is a war that should have never happened, wouldn't have happened. But I'll be speaking to Zelenskyy. The next meeting will be with Zelenskyy and Putin or Zelenskyy and Putin and me. I'll be there if they need, but I want to have a meeting set up between the two leaders. I was a little bothered by the fact that Zelenskyy was saying, well, I have to get constitutional approval. I mean, he's -- he's got approval to go into war and kill everybody, but he needs approval to do a land swap. Because there'll be some land swapping going on. I know that through Russia and through conversations with everybody, to the good - for the good of Ukraine. Good stuff, not bad stuff, also some bad stuff for both. So, there's good and there's bad. But it's very complex because you have lines that are very uneven. And there'll be some swapping. There'll be some changes in land. And the word that they will use is, you know, they -- they make changes. We're going to change the lines, the battle lines. ussia's occupied a big portion of Ukraine. They've occupied some very prime territory. We're going to try and get some of that territory back for Ukraine. But they've taken some very prime territory. They've taken largely ocean -- you know, in real estate we call it oceanfront property. That's always the most valuable property. If you're on a lake, a river or an ocean, it's always the best property. Well, Ukraine -- a lot of people don't know that Ukraine was largely a thousand miles of ocean. That's gone, other than one small area, Odessa. It's a small area. There's just a little bit of water left. So, I'm going to go and see the parameters. Now, I may leave and say good luck, and that'll be the end. I may say this -- this is not going to be settled. I mean, there are those that believe that Putin wanted all of Ukraine. I happen to be one of them, by the way. I think if it weren't for me, he would not be even talking to anybody else right now. But I'm going to meet with him. We're going to see what the parameters are. And then I'm going to call up President Zelenskyy and the European leaders - <...> Right after the meeting, yeah. And I'm going to tell them what kind of a deal -- I'm not going to make a deal. It's not up to me to make a deal. I think a deal should be made for both.
<...>
But I'm going to -- I'm going to meet with President Putin, and we're going to see what he has in mind. And if it's a fair deal, I'll reveal it to the European Union leaders and to the NATO leaders, and also to President Zelenskyy. I think out of respect I'll call him first and then I'll call them after. And I may say lots of luck, keep fighting, or I may say we can make a deal. If not? I will tell you this. I've seen a poll coming out of Ukraine. 88 percent of the people would like to see a deal made. And if you go back three years, everybody was gung ho for war.

https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-law-enforcement-washington-dc-august-11-2025

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August 12, 2025

Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov regarding the preparation for the upcoming summit between President Donald J. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Both sides confirmed their commitment to ensure a successful event.

https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/08/secretary-rubios-call-with-russian-foreign-minister-lavrov-3

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SECRETARY RUBIO: Well, I think it’s a feel-out meeting to be honest. I think – here’s the way I would describe it. The President talked to Putin on the phone three times and – or four times. Okay. And nothing has come of it and – or at least we haven’t gotten to where we want to be. And so the President feels like, look, I’ve got to look at this guy across the table. I need to see him face to face. I need to hear him one on one. I need to make an assessment by looking at him.

And people have to understand – for President Trump, a meeting is not a concession. If you watch some of the news – I don’t watch a lot of it anymore – but you watch it, and these people are going nuts. Oh, this is – what a win for a Putin; he gets a meeting. He doesn’t view it that way. A meeting is what you do to kind of figure out and make your decision. I want to have all the facts. I want to look this guy in the eye. And that’s what the President wants to do. So honestly, I think we’re going to know very early in that meeting whether this thing has any chance of success or not.

https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/08/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-with-sid-rosenberg-of-sid-and-friends-in-the-morning

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August 12, 2025

Well, this meeting came about because the president of Russia asked the president of the United States to meet through his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who, as you all know, traveled to Russia to have a conversation with Putin, at his request. And so the president is agreeing to this meeting at the request of President Putin. And the goal of this meeting for the president is to walk away with a better understanding of how we can end this war. And the president said at this podium yesterday when he joined all of you in the room, that he hopes in the future there can be a trilateral meeting with these three leaders to finally bring this conflict to an end.
<...>
After special Envoy Witkoff returned from his meeting with President Putin in Russia, his first phone call was to President Trump and President Trump's first phone call was to President Zelenskyy and to our friends in Europe, to keep everybody in the loop about where the United States can see moving the ball forward to end this conflict.
<...>
Question
Thank you. Last week the -- the meeting with Putin was sort of described potentially as an opportunity for a deal. Now it's a feeling out. Is there a -- has there been a shift in expectations within the White House or an effort to temper expectations about what success looks like for this meeting?

Karoline Leavitt
Well, I mean, look, I think both can be true, right? The president has always said he wants a peace deal. He wants to see this war come to an end. But this bilateral meeting is a bilateral meeting between one party in this two party war, right? You need both countries to agree to a deal. The president is accepting this bilateral meeting with Putin on Friday.


https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-briefing-karoline-leavitt-august-12-2025

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August 14, 2025

We have a meeting with President Putin tomorrow. I think it's going to be a good meeting, but the more important meeting will be the second meeting that we're having. We're going to have a meeting with President Putin, President Zelenskyy, myself and maybe we will bring some of the European leaders along, maybe not. We're going to see what happens. And I think President Putin will make peace. I think President Zelenskyy will make peace. We'll see if they can get along and if they can, it'll be great. You know, I've solved six wars in the last six months, a little more than six months now, and I'm very proud of it. I thought the easiest one would be this one. It's actually the most difficult.

https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-remarks-social-security-oval-office-august-14-2025